黄金价格屡次创下纪录新高在过去一个月时间里一直是市场关注的主题。如下图所显示的那样，黄金价格已经突破其200日移动均线，升至每盎司2000美元，突破了2011年9月的历史最高点，并且涨幅也超过了今年高涨的科技股的涨幅。
研究黄金这一贵金属近期强势的来源，有助于获取有用的投资思路。
黄金价格和其200日移动平均线
来源：富时罗素/Refinitiv。截至2020年7月31日的数据。过去的表现并不意味着未来的结果。请参见结尾的法律信息。
黄金价格在今年飙升的主要原因是美国国债收益率的急跌至预期通胀率下方。
如下图所显示的那样，黄金价格与美国国债实际收益率之前存在着强反相关性。
当美国国债的实际收益率为负时，持有无利息黄金的机会成本相对高于收益类替代产品。
黄金/盎司vs富时美国通胀挂钩指数3-5年实际收益率（倒挂）
来源：富时罗素/Refinitiv。截至2020年7月31日的数据。过去的表现并不意味着未来的结果。请参见结尾的法律信息。
黄金和风险偏好
目前的宏观经济环境以及相关市场风险情绪也可以解释黄金近期的走势。
如下图所显示的那样，铜（对经济敏感的投资品）相对于黄金（更具防御性资产）更好的表现一直以来都是风险偏好的可靠历史性指标，并且与股票对债券更好的表现具有相关性。
尽管铜价近期涨幅超过黄金，仍未突破相比黄金的长期下跌趋势。
铜价/金价比值vs富时环球指数相对于富时世界政府债券指数
黄金和黄金矿业股
尽管黄金矿业股企业是近期黄金价格上涨的主要受益者，但事情并非总是如此。
黄金价格在2017年稳步上涨，但黄金矿业股表现不佳，这意味着两者之间并没有牢固与快捷的关系。
黄金价格VS富时世界黄金矿业指数相比富时世界指数
来源：富时罗素/Refinitiv。截至2020年7月31日的数据。过去的表现并不意味着未来的结果。请参见结尾的法律信息。
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