美国市场
- 标普500指数期货 下跌5点
- 美国10年期国债 1.54%
- 原油期货 54.55美元
- 美元指数 97.86
- 波动率指数VIX 22.25
国际市场
- 中国上证综指 上涨0.25%
- 香港恒生指数 上涨0.76%
- 韩国KOSPI指数 休市
- 日本日经指数 下跌1.2%
- 德国DAX指数 下跌0.71%
- 英国富时指数FTSE 下跌1.21%
经济数据
在研究今天发布的经济数据后，我认为从数据中无法得出我们正在走向“经济衰退”的结论。
- 零售销售指数 上涨0.7% 预期为0.3%
- 费城联储指数 上涨16.8 预期为11.1
- 纽约联储制造业指数 上涨4.8 预期2.5
- 非农业生产力指数 上涨2.3% 预期1.5%
- 单位劳动成本 上涨2.4% 预期2%
我不认为这些数据看起来像是美国的经济在衰退。也许有其他的因素在影响国债收益率。那是世界其他地区（的经济状况），以及投资者对收益率的不懈追求。
亚特兰大联储的GDP Now数据今天公布 我预计将上涨2%
价差
美国与德国10年期国债的价差在今天早上终于突破了重要的2.25%水平线。
我仍然认为至少在短期而言，这个位置对于收益率而言是一个底部。
这同时使得价差回到2%的水平，也就是2016年以前的水平。
美国与德国10年期国债的价差是最值得关注的指标之一，因为该价差有助于创造部分套利机会，而这部分套利又导致美国国债的收益率下降。
与此同时，美国30年期国债与3个月国债的价差约为6个基点。
标准普尔500指数基金（SPY）
标普500指数期货今天出现涨跌波动，这让人很难确定今天股市开盘后的潜在走势。
这种情况可能源于经济数据公布后所带来的重要影响。抱歉，昨天的图表也未能给我带来好的感觉。今天早晨的低点时2825点，该点位很可能是下一个支撑线。
罗素2000指数基金（IWM）
我想证明自己错了，我希望眼睛看到的不是真实的。但是，罗素2000指数的图表看起来像是头肩形态。
这使得目前1450左右的点位显得非常重要。如果罗素2000指数突破该点位水平，将是一个意味着会跌向低得多的水平的可怕信号。
思科系统公司（CSCO）
我对思科系统公司股价在今天大跌感到意外。思科股价跌向更低看起来源于盈利指引不及预期，因为较此前的盈利指引有所下调。
市场的预期是思科在2020年第一季度的增速为2.5%，高于该公司给出的1%的盈利指引。
46.50美元是思科股价的支撑线。
通用电气（GE）
通用电气跌破9美元的支撑位，目前预设将跌至8.25美元。在麦道夫案的爆料者质疑通用电气会计问题后，该公司的股价下跌。
我不知道我是否想与麦道夫在同一句话中被提及。情况看起来不好，有更多的事情会让投资者担忧。
阿里巴巴（BABA）
阿里巴巴公布的季度财报业绩好于预期，其后股价上涨。
但是，贸易与货币方面的风险对于该股来说是目前最重要的影响因素。
阿里股价的阻力位是166美元。
沃尔玛（WMT）
沃尔玛公布令人满意的财报后股价上涨。其阻力位在115美元左右。
8月15日美股评论所提及的股票：思科、标普500指数基金SPY、沃尔玛、阿里巴巴、通用电气
Michael Kramer与Mott Capital的客户持有思科公司的股票
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