标普500指数在6月20日创历史新高，该指数在截至6月20日的今年内上涨近18%。
我认为股指创新高值得庆祝，大多数分析师认为美联储将转为更鸽派的货币政策，包括今年晚些时候降息的可能，则是股市上涨的重要原因。
不过需要提醒注意的是美联储态度为何突然转变的首要原因：越来越多的证据表明本轮创纪录长度的美国经济增长正在失去动力。
看跌的市场情绪
虽然美股指数创下历史新高，但投资者却并没有失去理智。
Bespoke投资集团分析师在近期一篇文章中指出，AAII的每周投资者市场情绪调查数据显示“目前的看涨情绪较标普500指数上次站在目前的点位水平时，低了约10%左右。”
盈利放缓
源于全球贸易紧张局势以及美国国内增速放缓，美国企业的盈利自去年以来大幅下滑。
全球经济减速
事实上，由于美中这两大经济体之间的摩擦对全球制造业产生是连锁影响，全球经济增长受到冲击。
结论
国际货币基金组织在4月份将全球经济增长预期调低至2008年金融危机以来最低。
国际货币基金组织的经济学家们认为，美国经济在今年的增速将降低至2.3%，与之相比的是，美国经济在2018年的增速为2.9%，对2020年的经济增速预测值为1.9%。
股市的上涨是一件美事。不过，我认为以上这些趋势可能会在某些时刻对股票市场的定价产生不利的影响。
Disclosure: Interactive Advisors
This material is not intended as investment advice. Interactive Advisors or portfolio managers on its marketplace may hold long or short positions in the companies mentioned through stocks, options or other securities.
Pursuant to the Investment Management Agreement between Interactive Advisors and its clients, all brokerage transactions occur through Interactive Brokers LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Advisors. Interactive Advisors does not offer services through any other broker-dealer. The use of an affiliate for brokerage services represents a conflict of interest. Interactive Advisors clients acknowledge this conflict of interest and authorize Interactive Advisors to execute transactions through Interactive Brokers LLC when they open an Interactive Advisors account. Clients should consider the commissions and other expenses, execution, clearance, and settlement capabilities of Interactive Brokers LLC as a factor in their decision to invest in an Interactive Advisors Portfolio. Interactive Advisors believes it can meet its best execution obligation by trading its clients’ trades through Interactive Brokers LLC. While there can be no assurance that it will in fact achieve best execution, Interactive Advisors does periodically monitor the execution quality of transactions to ensure that clients receive the best overall trade execution pursuant to regulatory requirements.
Disclosure: Interactive Brokers
Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from Interactive Advisors, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with permission from Interactive Advisors. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Interactive Advisors and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
In accordance with EU regulation: The statements in this document shall not be considered as an objective or independent explanation of the matters. Please note that this document (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination or publication of investment research.
Any trading symbols displayed are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to portray recommendations.
Disclosure: Chinese Translation
这篇文章已被翻译成中文。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致，以英文版本为准。该文章中的分析仅为提供信息，不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容，不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买，出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前，您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况，并在必要时寻求专业建议。
盈透交易员睿智中提供的内容（包括文章和评论）仅作为资讯用途。发布的内容并不代表盈透证券建议您或您的客户联系独立顾问或对冲基金以期获取其服务或投资其产品，也不代表建议您联系在盈透交易员睿智发布文章或向顾问、对冲基金投资的相关人士。在盈透交易员睿智中发布文章的顾问、对冲基金或其他分析师均独立于盈透证券，盈透证券不会对这些顾问、对冲基金或其他人士的过往或将来表现，或其提供的信息之准确性做出任何声明或担保。盈透证券不会进行“适宜性评估”来确保顾问、对冲基金或其他参与方的交易适合于您。
发布内容中提及的证券或其他金融产品并非适合所有投资者。发布的内容并未从您的投资目标、财务状况或需求出发，并不旨在向您推荐任何证券、金融产品或策略。过往业绩并不代表将来表现，如有需要，请咨询相关人士获取专业的建议。
盈透或其分支机构的雇员所发布的任何信息均基于公认的真实可信的信息。然而，盈透或其分支机构无法保证信息的完整性、准确性和适当性。盈透不对任何金融产品其过去或将来的表现作出任何声明或担保。交易员睿智中发布的文章并不代表盈透认为任何特定金融产品或交易策略适合您。
