股市可能仍倾向于认为将会达成贸易协定,但鉴于最近的头条新闻报道,也有应对其他可能性的考量。这种头脑风暴可能有助于理解为何近期的涨势出现了减缓。
截止今天早上,标普500指数本周累计上涨了0.03%,基本上持平,不过考虑到最近的头条新闻报道以及该指数在过去三个月的涨幅为8.9%,这个结果并不坏。
总统贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗出面淡化负面报道,他昨晚接受福克斯商业的采访并称《华尔街日报》的报道为“谣言”,表示正在通往达成第一阶段协议的路上。
股市则在开盘会低走的路径上。目前,主要指数的股指期货的交易价格低于公允价值0.2%-0.3%。
此外,由于标普500指数在攀登3100点整数水平一线遇到部分困难,我们可将目前的疲软部分归因于技术因素。
与此同时,道琼斯指数成分股沃尔玛和思科公布财报后的复杂市场反应,也对目前的股指期货产生影响。
沃尔玛公布的第三季度财报每股收益超预期,并且提高了对2020财年的盈利指引,该公司股价随后上涨1.9%。
思科的第一财季财报中每股收益超预期,但是该公司对第二财季发出预警,称宏观环境上充满了挑战带来了广泛性的疲软,该公司股价下跌5.4%。
市场参与者也在关注今天早上公布的经济数据,这些数据导致部分负面的新闻报道。
10月PPI生产者价格指数的终值上涨0.4%(Briefing.com预估为上涨0.3%),不包括食物和能源的核心PPI指数则上涨了0.3%(Briefing.com预估为上涨0.2%)。两项数据按年同比则分别为上涨1.1%和1.6%,在9月时的数据则为同比上涨1.4%和2.0%。
从该报告中可得出的关键结论是,早一天发布的CPI数据减轻了PPI给市场带来意外的可能性;此外,PPI总体数据与核心PPI数据的按年同比下降,也缓解了月度数据所带来的的意外。
在其他经济数据方面,截止11月9日当周的首次申请失业金人数增加1.4万人,升至22.5万人(Briefing.com预估为21.4万人),在截止11月2日的当周,再次申请失业金人数减少1万,降至168.3万人。
从该报告中可得出的关键结论是,每周首次申请人数的变化不足以改变四周移动均线的支撑性趋势,四周移动均线实际上增加了1750,升至21.7万。
再次提醒,美联储主席鲍威尔今天再次出席国会经济前景的听证会。他将于上午10点在众议院预算委员会面前进行听证,给出市场已经知晓的政策观点。
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