世界很小:全球股债汇市场紧密相关

By:

President Y H & C and a Portfolio Manager for Interactive Advisors

“科技和旅行正让世界各地变得越来越紧密。部分人群害怕全球化(的影响),但我认为人们总会为文化传承感到骄傲。” – 约翰·麦基


布拉德·皮特在数年前主演了一部电影《本杰明·巴顿》,剧情聚焦于主角从垂垂老矣到婴儿的逆生长。

该电影有一个片段是主角经历了一次不幸的事故。其后的故事说明主角所进行的每一个选择均会影响到他的时间线和命运。

我举这个例子是想说明在很多情况下,包括金融市场在内的许许多多单独事件综合起来催生了结果。

我认为,要纵览全球市场就要了解世界某一个地区的小事件是如何影响到其他地区的市场的。

市场波动性

全球证券市场在过去数周经历了高度的波动。我认为有数个原因造成了如此的情况。

首先,中国的出口占据其GDP近50%的份额。在过去十年的时间里,中国将国内经济作为发展的重点,以减少对出口的依赖。

其次的因素是,特朗普总统决定对中国出口至美国的商品征收更多关税。

外汇市场

包括印度央行在内的数个国家央行宣布降息,全球外汇市场对此作出反应。更低的利率反过来对外汇的债券市场产生影响。



日元在市场波动时被视为避险货币,日元汇率在此种情况下上升。

日本利率

当考虑宽松货币政策的影响是,日本也是一个发挥重要力量的国家。

30多年以来,日本政府通过将利率维持在低位刺激国内经济的发展。

产生相应的结果是,日本的银行业面临巨大压力,因为许多较小型的银行无法通过发放贷款获得足够的利息收入从而盈利。

更大型的日本 银行已经转为在全球市场寻找增加利息收入的地区,尤其是美国市场。

债券市场

随着外汇市场的波动性加剧,投资者涌入债券市场,纷纷购买国债和其他政府债券。

美国国债收益率下跌如此之多以至于在近期的反弹前,美国国债收益率在本周跌破了1.7%的水平。


与之相应的,受到上述全部动态的影响,美国股市在近期的交易日中下跌,道琼斯工业平均指数在一天内下跌了760点。

英国脱欧变化

英国新任首相鲍里斯·约翰逊计划在10月31日的截止日期前完成脱欧,这一情况给英镑带来了压力。

所以我认为我们面对的是一个本杰明·巴顿的情况,即全球市场的事件均紧密相关。

我的看法是,在寻找投资机会是记住这一点是很关键的。

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