我认为在未来一段时间里，投资者必须关注原油价格和能源板块。
中东地区的经济体依赖原油收入对社会的资助。伊朗就是一个例子。
美国与伊朗之间的紧张局势为原油价格带来了新的危险动能。美国近期通过无人机袭击杀死了伊朗高级将领苏莱曼尼，引发对美国驻伊拉克军事基地的报复性导弹袭击。
伊朗冲突
随着原油价格从几年前的历史记录高位回落，以及美国对伊朗的既有和新增制裁所构成的压力，波斯湾的经济前景看起来存在不确定性。
我认为所有这些因素均证明了石油在全球事务中的重要性。
这也是我为何不赞同部分民主党候选人的限制页岩油和海上钻井平台开发的提议，更不用说限制建立更多的管道来运输原油的建议了。
炼油产业板块
对炼油行业进一步的研究也是有意义的。约有5%的国内炼油厂目前正在出售，包括荷兰皇家壳牌公司位于西雅图附近的一家主要工厂也被该公司决定出售。
我认为造成这种现象的原因有很多，包括环境监管因素，后勤运输的困难，炼油厂规模以及来自于加勒比海地区的新增供应。
炼油业务在传统上是石油行业巨头的关键性资产，因为炼油业务可以对冲原油价格下跌。
当原油价格下跌，有利于降低炼油厂的原油成本，通常有助于提高整体的利润率。
地缘政治
特朗普政府在全球因为其中东政策缺乏清晰的长期战略目标而遭到批评。
我同时认为伊朗也存在危险的行为。伊朗意外击落一架乌克兰客机，并在近期表示将全面恢复发展核武器的项目。
总而言之，我认为投资者有必要密切关注中东地区新的地缘政治紧张局势以及其对原油价格以及投资组合的影响。
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