由于全球经济增长的同步放缓损害了全球资金借贷者的贷款增长和盈利预期前景,银行股在今年夏季交易中遇到挫折。
在近期交易日中,金融板块是标普500指数(SPX)中遇到最严重冲击的板块之一。
在截至8月13日的六个月时间里,被视为指标的KBW纳斯达克全球银行指数(代码:GBKX)下跌了4.5%。

全球银行
跌幅最大的几家财团包括花旗集团(代码:C),摩根大通(代码:JPM),美国银行(代码:BAC)和高盛(代码:GS)等。
欧洲、亚洲以及美国经济增长放缓的担忧对利率带来下行的压力。
利率下行反过来会损害银行在新增贷款上的盈利能力,并增加了现有贷款上的违约风险。

负利率
市场另一个担忧是政府债券在全球出现的负利率趋势,这意味着投资者宁愿付钱给政府来保管他们的资金而不是为了获得回报。
全球目前约有15万亿美元的政府债券收益率为负值。
因为银行们经常将资金投入政府债券,故而负利率的情况对银行也是一个问题。
美联储
美联储7月降息25个基点是10多年以来第一次降息,目的是维系美国经济增长。
因为特朗普不断施压美联储进行更多降息,美联储的观察者认为年底前可能会见到更多次25个基点的降息。
如果发生降息的情况,对于股票投资者和整体经济来说是利好消息。
但短期趋势而言,我认为美联储降息将对主要银行们构成严峻挑战。
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