美股市场在上半年表现优异，截至6月底上涨约17%，为20多年来的同期最佳表现。
在国际贸易形势紧张以及委内瑞拉和伊朗等地区的地缘政治紧张局势加剧的情况下，美股市场的大幅增长更显得非同一般。
数据背后的现象值得花些时间考量下。美股市场在今年上半年的涨幅是自1997年以来的首次，1997年的股市上涨源于网络股的强劲涨幅。
更为重要的背景是，自2009年3月开启的本轮牛市已经延续了10年多的时间。
审视基本面
即便有如上的成绩，市场对美股市场未来走势的担忧仍萦绕不去。
首先，由于国际贸易摩擦的增加以及美国国内经济增长的放缓，美国公司的盈利较去年有大幅下滑。
全球经济增长(放缓)
国际货币基金组织在4月时下调对全球经济前景的展望，为2008年金融危机以来的最低点。
国际货币基金组织的经济学家认为，美国经济在2019年的经济增长将降至2.3%，与之相比的是2018年的增速为2.9%，对2020年的美国经济增长速度的预估则为1.9%。
估值
现在也没有人认为美股市场股票的价格仍低廉。
看一下标普500指数中成分公司的市盈率。正如《华尔街日报》在一篇文章中指出的，目前的股价高于过去十年的平均价格。
结论
美股市场的下一个顶部会在哪里？投资者们密切关注几周后的美联储议息会议，届时美联储可能选择降息，而这是美联储自金融危机以来的首次降息。
随着企业盈利的放缓和全球经济增速下降，我认为美联储不得不扛下为美国股市注入一剂肾上腺激素的责任。如果美联储没有(选择降息)，请系好安全带。
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